Little School on the Prairie: A Push for Structural Transformation (Job Market Paper)
2025
Does education cause structural transformation? Using newly available full count census records from the early 20th century Canadian prairies, I examine the effect of the rollout of schools. I construct new census links and create the finest geolocations available in North American census records. Isolating schooling access at an individual child level, I estimate a difference-in-differences by cohort, relying on variation in school opening dates relative to a child’s age. I find that schooling access led children to exit agriculture as adults, move farther away from home, and earn higher incomes. They are significantly more likely to work in a higher skill services occupation, including as teachers, as adults. I interpret these results through the lens of a structural model of education-occupation-migration and find that the expansion of schools led to migration away from the most agriculturally marginal land, towards growing cities. This suggests that education access can act as a push factor for structural transformation out of agriculture in rural areas.
Download Paper | Download Slides